The 2026 NFL potential customers have had the ability to put plenty on film this previous college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has actually risen above the pack after leading Indiana to their very first Championship game.

In a surprising turn of occasions, forecasted No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore chose to go back to Oregon for his senior year.

Moore has been mocked to the New york city Jets with the 2nd total pick for a while now, and his statement leaves the Jets in limbo.

Here's a take a look at the odds to go No. 1 overall after his statement:

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Fernando Mendoza

-20000

Arvell Reese

David Bailey

+8000

Ty Simpson

+10000

Caleb Downs

Rueben Bain Jr.

+12500

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear favorite to be selected first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with about 4 months. Moore's statement dropped Mendoza's chances from -1000, all the way to -20000.

The Cal-transfer has actually changed Indiana's group from a strong, defensive-minded system in 2015 to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL construct, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.

He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, 33 goals, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Huge Ten Championship, the Championship game, and the No. 1 seed entering the playoff.

After Moore's statement, Arvell Reese leapt up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and rush the QB.

He's extremely strong, fast, and nimble and was popping up all over the tape through the beginning parts of the season, but hasn't been as efficient in the back half.

Texas Tech's David Bailey's chances have also jumped after a piece de resistance at the NFL Combine.

The pass rush stands 6' 3" tall, and 250 lbs. in 2025 he racked up 14.5 sacks and 3 required fumbles, and has surpassed Rueben Bain Jr who has been docked by scouts for having shorter arms than standard elite pass rushers.

Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the 2nd QB on this list after bring a Crimson Tide offense that can hardly run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing lawns and 26 goals while throwing 5 picks.

Simpson is smooth and accurate with a quick throwing movement that must translate well to the NFL.

Ohio State's safety Caleb Downs (+12500) is a projected top-ten choice due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.

Another protective player with +125000 chances to go top is Miami's protective end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 lbs and has actually taped 4.5 sacks and 7.5 takes on for loss while requiring a fumble and getting an interception and has dominated in the playoffs.

Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on preferred to go No. 1, however after a slower year than expected he plans to go back to Texas for another season.

Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 National Championship Preview.